I know I've been writing a fair bit about the accusations of gerrymandering in Singapore but I believe I needed to admit something before this topic becomes irrelevant as time from the GE passes.
Yes, the new boundaries published by EBRC in March are virtually the only reason why the Workers' Party left Marine Parade.
And yes, those boundaries can affect elections – especially if a party believes they do.
So, why did WP think it couldn't contest Marine Parade anymore? Was it too strongly pro-PAP after some blocks were moved east and west? Did EBRC waste the party's two-year effort in walking the ground in the area by making it uncontestable?
No.
The reason WP left so eagerly is that EBRC created Punggol GRC – a constituency that Pritam Singh must have believed was so well-tailored for his party that he threw away the investment in Marine Parade and went running to seize the opportunity.
Yes, WP left Marine Parade because they believed this new constituency FAVOURED the Workers' Party.
Imagine that, EBRC doing something that helps the opposition!?
By making a dash for Punggol they blew up their own accusations about PAP gerrymandering, showing that EBRC produces constituencies WP itself thinks are far more attractive to the opposition than the ones it has spent years investing in.
I know I showed this in a previous article, but let's look at it again – new Punggol GRC is a twin of Sengkang. Similar size, similar location, similar people who Pritam must have believed were automatically more likely to vote for WP (helped by the proximity to the team led by the golden boy, Jamus Lim).
Prop Punggol up with a "star" candidate Harpreet Singh and they should win!
At least that's what the calculation must have been, which ignored that it wasn't likely that local voters would be willing to turn their backs on the PAP team, especially the well-liked Sun Xueling, after WP just showed up out of nowhere.
The decision to abandon Marine Parade was motivated by the new boundaries. But not, like WP loves to allege, by making some constituencies difficult to contest, but by making some that WP believed would make it much easier.
And not because of voters' past sympathies but due to demographic similarity to a neighbouring division.
However, this belief is what led the party to make a huge miscalculation.
Perhaps it's because of Pritam's degree in war studies which might make him look at a map as if it were a battlefield that you're moving your troops around, ignoring the human component on the ground.
Candidates matter.
Yes, people vote for parties but the strength of individual candidates is what pushes their results over 50%.
And yet Pritam seems to believe that walking the ground for two years matters less than a favourable profile of the voters in a new constituency. Isn't that disrespectful to Singaporeans? And isn't that hypocritical after all he's been saying about EBRC?
Featured image: S5A-0043 / Wikipedia
