Singapore is known for its orderly, predictable transitions of power between subsequent generations of government officials. Over the past 60 years the reins of the country have been passed on from one group of technocrats to another without a hitch.
However, the latest one one wasn't all smooth sailing and it initially looked like the brewing uncertainty about the ultimate shape of the 4G cabinet could provide an opening for the domestic opposition to finally push the PAP below the 60% share of the vote in the election, while pushing it out of even more constituencies.
All was seemingly well until 2021, when the original successor for Lee Hsien Loong, min. Heng Swee Keat announced his surprising decision to withdraw.
Due to advancing age and, likely, the health scare he got five years earlier when he collapsed with a stroke during cabinet meeting, he called on younger candidates to step up and take his place.
This threw the party off balance somewhat, as there were no real contenders up to that point and it didn't seem like anybody else was a natural candidate.
Four names were circulating in the media: Lawrence Wong, Ong Ye Kung, Chan Chun Sing and Desmond Lee. It really wasn't clear which one could take the job of replacing Lee Hsien Loong himself.
And once he was eventually selected, would he be able to lead the PAP to electoral victories against the opposition, which seemed to have been gaining steam in recent years?
For most of Singapore's independent existence the country has been run by the Lees. First Lee Kuan Yew, who stepped down after 25 years, and now Lee Hsien Loong, adding another 20. It would now have to be governed not only by someone new but without another Lee in waiting. Their role is over and the PAP has to swim on its own now.
Even after Lawrence Wong was finally chosen to lead the 4G team, it wasn't quite certain if he could handle the job. Not professionally – I'm sure we all agree he has the competences and experience – but as a leader of the party and the nation.
This could be a boon for charismatic opponents, eager to chip away PAP's huge electoral advantage.
Opposition presents new faces as PAP stalwarts retire
To make matters worse, PAP headed into the election without some of its biggest names. Twenty of its MPs retired before the vote, including Heng Swee Keat, Ng Eng Hen and Teo Chee Hean, together with several major cabinet members and MPs delivering strong results for the party, like Maliki Osman, Amy Khor or Sitoh Yin Pin.
Meanwhile, Workers's Party had been adding fresh candidates, like senior counsel Harpreet Singh, senior principal clinical psychologist at IMH Dr Ong Lue Ping or Harvard graduate Michael Thng.
It also boldly sent its vice-chairman, Faisal Manap, out of the safety of Aljunied GRC to contest Tampines, aiming to win over the Malay vote amid the ongoing war in Gaza which became a hot topic in the election. This manoeuvre was modelled on original venturing out of Hougang by Low Thia Khiang, which led to the capture of Aljunied GRC.
And yet none of it worked.
Lawrence Wong becomes the first PM to improve on his predecessor's result
When the votes were cast none of the newcomers made a difference, while Faisal Manap can, at most, be hoping for an NCMP slot.
PAP has collected 65.57% of the vote, a boost of over 4% compared to 2020, and stopped opposition from picking up any new seats.
It also decisively defeated PSP in the West, ending Tan Cheng Bock's much belated political ambitions, sending him into retirement.
All while replacing a fifth of its MP slate, including political heavyweights, and completing the transition to a 4G cabinet which is due to be announced in the coming week or two.
The only blemish on the party's performance was its inability to win back Sengkang, which fell to WP five years ago, although I explained earlier why it wasn't all that interested in fighting for it tooth and nail.
What's more, Lawrence Wong, who might not have been an obvious successor at the very beginning of the transition, has now become the first new PM who has improved on his predecessor's last General Election tally.
Of course, we have to bear in mind that there were only two before him.
Nevertheless, given the conditions within the party – political transition, S Iswaran scandal – and outside of it, with new opposition names and trends indicating that alternative parties are capable of winning more constituencies, his performance has to be seen as a major success.
It's often forgotten that despite his place in the country's history, it was Lee Kuan Yew who was still in charge when the party's performance dropped into the 60s.
And when Goh Chok Tong took over in 1990, his first election ended with the lowest result in the party's history at the time.
He ended on a much higher note of over 75% in his last contest in 2001, though that was a freak result following the attacks of 9/11 and the beginning of the War on Terror.
When Lee Hsien Loong entered the stage his first electoral result was almost 10% worse and then dropped by another 6% to reach the historical bottom in 2011, only marginally over 60%.
2015 brought another surprise, with the party receiving a boost following Lee Kuan Yew's passing, falling back down quickly to around 61% in 2020, despite the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, and losing Sengkang GRC – its second group constituency.
So, it's not like the trends have been in Lawrence Wong's favour. Yes, the turmoil caused by Donald Trump could have helped – but the same did not happen five years ago when the GE was held during the pandemic.
I don't think that back in 2021, when DPM Heng stepped aside, anybody would have suggested that the PAP could bounce back so well.
That it would select a new leader who would then take it to a successful election and boost PAP's vote share back by a few percent, despite losing some major names in the ongoing transition, following a major corruption scandal implicating one of the government's ministers.
His calm disposition and competence make up for lack of a charismatic, fiery character, often expected in leaders. His reputation is spotless, he's a very likeable person and has been communicating well with Singaporeans, navigating the increasingly treacherous waters of domestic politics.
And, as I commented in an article for the Vulcan Post last month, if he succeeds – as he has in the GE – it might be difficult for the opposition to attack him in the future as well.
Lee Hsien Loong's incoming retirement from politics has caused much uncertainty – probably the most in the country's political history up to that date, given that Lee Kuan Yew was no longer around.
It didn't start well, with the original plan ending in the bin after Heng Swee Keat's withdrawal. And yet it worked out perfectly in the end, putting the party in a much better position than it was in 2020.
